 While Canada Faces an Entrepreneurial Drought, St. Thomas Is About to Bloom Canada is losing businesses faster than it's creating them. That's not spin, and it's not a slow news day -- it's a documented trend that deserves an honest look. The Canadian Federation of Independent Business released a report this month officially naming what many small business owners have been quietly feeling since 2024: an entrepreneurial drought. For six consecutive quarters, more businesses in Canada have closed than have opened -- the worst stretch of business decline outside of the pandemic. More than half of small business owners, 55%, say they would not recommend starting a business right now. Rising costs, regulatory pressure, labour challenges, and persistent uncertainty are all part of why. It's a real picture. We're not here to pretend otherwise. But here's what the national data can't show you: where you're standing when you read it. And if you're in St. Thomas or Elgin County right now, you're standing somewhere most entrepreneurs in this country would be envious of.  What's happening in Ontario -- and why it matters for our region Ontario is home to more than 410,000 small employer businesses, the largest concentration of any province in Canada. It's also the province bearing the heaviest burden of the entrepreneurial drought, as decades of business activity are squeezed by the same cost and regulatory pressures that are hitting everyone else. Business confidence in Ontario is currently stronger than in most other provinces, but that confidence is being tested. Financing and labour remain the two most-cited challenges for small businesses heading into 2026, and over 20% of small businesses indicate cash flow as a primary concern. The owners who are finding their footing in this environment share one thing in common: they planned ahead and didn't try to figure it out alone. St. Thomas is a different story While much of the country is navigating a shrinking business landscape, St. Thomas is in the early stages of a significant industrial expansion that will create demand for goods, services, skilled tradespeople, and the restaurants, shops, and businesses that support a growing workforce. PowerCo Canada's $7 billion investment is bringing what will be the country's largest electric vehicle battery manufacturing plant to St. Thomas, with 3,000 direct jobs projected and estimates of up to 30,000 indirect jobs across the supply chain. That's not a minor economic footnote. That's a generational shift in what this community looks like. And PowerCo isn't alone at the table. Vianode, a Norwegian advanced battery materials company, broke ground in November 2025 on a $3.2 billion synthetic graphite plant at Yarmouth Yards, North America's first large-scale clean graphite facility, expected to grow to 1,000 workers at full capacity. Production is scheduled to begin in 2028, with a supply agreement already in place with General Motors. Put those two investments together, and you're looking at over $10 billion in capital flowing into one mid-sized city in southwestern Ontario. The ripple effects for local entrepreneurs in food service, trades, logistics, retail, professional services, housing, and more are not speculative. They're coming. The question is whether local business owners are positioned to meet that demand when it arrives.  The gap between opportunity and readiness Here's the tension the CFIB report doesn't address: opportunity doesn't wait for you to be ready. The entrepreneurs who will benefit most from St. Thomas's industrial growth over the next five years are not the ones who start planning in 2028. They're the ones doing the work now, thinking through their market, financials, capacity, and timing. That's a hard thing to do alone, especially in an environment where costs are high, credit is tighter than it used to be, and the stakes of a misstep feel bigger than ever. The average Canadian small business spent 735 hours navigating regulatory requirements in 2024 alone, the equivalent of 32 working days. Time spent on red tape is time not spent building a business. This is exactly where the Elgin/St. Thomas Small Business Enterprise Centre comes in. What the SBEC offers -- and why now is the time to use it The SBEC exists to help entrepreneurs think clearly, plan honestly, and move with confidence. That means free, confidential, one-on-one advisory sessions where we work through your actual numbers, your actual market, and your actual readiness, not a generic checklist, but your specific situation. If you're thinking about starting a business to serve St. Thomas's growing workforce, we can help you assess whether the timing makes sense, what the financials need to look like, and what gaps you'd need to close before you open the door. If you're already running a business and wondering how to position yourself for what's coming, we can help you think through capacity, financing, and growth planning. We also run structured programs for entrepreneurs at different stages: Starter Company Plus pairs eligible business owners with grant funding and one-on-one coaching, designed to help you make better decisions before they become expensive ones. Summer Company supports young entrepreneurs with mentorship and funding to launch and test a business idea during the summer, a strong starting point for anyone building toward something bigger. These aren't just funding opportunities. They're frameworks that help you do the work of building a business that actually lasts. The bottom line Despite the headwinds, 92% of Canadian business owners say they would choose entrepreneurship again because running your own business, even in a difficult environment, still offers something you can't get anywhere else: ownership of your own direction. The national picture is challenging. The St. Thomas picture is genuinely exciting. And the window between now and when the economic impact of PowerCo and Vianode is fully felt is exactly the time to build, prepare, and position yourself well. The SBEC is here for that conversation. Reach out, book an appointment, and let's talk about what opportunity actually looks like for you.
Works Cited
Canadian Federation of Independent Business. "Canada's Entrepreneurial Drought, Part 1: The Shrinking Business Landscape." CFIB, 15 Apr. 2026, www.cfib-fcei.ca/en/research-economic-analysis/canada-entrepreneurial-drought-part1. Canadian Federation of Independent Business. "More Businesses Have Been Closing Than Opening in Canada. It's Time to Admit It: We're in an Entrepreneurial Drought." CFIB, 15 Apr. 2026, www.cfib-fcei.ca/en/media/more-businesses-have-been-closing-than-opening-in-canada.-its-time-to-admit-it-were-in-an-entrepreneurial-drought. Canadian Federation of Independent Business. "A Divided Year: Small Business Performance in 2025 Under the U.S.-Canada Trade War." CFIB, 4 Mar. 2026, www.cfib-fcei.ca/en/research-economic-analysis/a-divided-year-small-business-performance-under-the-2025-us-canada-trade-war. City of St. Thomas. "PowerCo Recruitment." City of St. Thomas, 6 Aug. 2025, www.stthomas.ca/news/what_s_new/power_co_recruitment. Government of Canada. Key Small Business Statistics 2025. Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada, 2025, ised-isde.canada.ca/site/sme-research-statistics/en/key-small-business-statistics/key-small-business-statistics-2025. Investment Executive. "'Drought' in Entrepreneurship Threatens Canada's Competitiveness: CFIB." Investment Executive, 15 Apr. 2026, www.investmentexecutive.com/news/drought-in-entrepreneurship-threatens-canadas-competitiveness-cfib/. Solberg, Brianna. "Canada Is Losing Businesses Faster Than It Can Create New Ones: CFIB Says." BNN Bloomberg, 15 Apr. 2026, www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/2026/04/15/canada-is-losing-businesses-faster-than-it-can-create-new-ones-cfib-says/. Vianode. "Vianode Breaks Ground on $3.2 Billion Plant in St. Thomas, Ont." BNN Bloomberg, 20 Nov. 2025, www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/company-news/2025/11/20/vianode-breaks-ground-on-32-billion-plant-in-st-thomas-ont/.
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